Publisher: University of Calabar

Post-Kyoto Protocol Negotiations At Cop20: Sunrise Or Sunset For Economic

Okoh, Augustine I. Sadiq
KEYWORDS: Kyoto protocol, Negotiations, Green economy, Economic growth, climate change, carbon emissions

ABSTRACT:

Post-Kyoto Protocol negotiations at Lima, Peru opened the age-worn Pandora Box of climate politics. The political stalemate is between developed and developing economies pitched against one another in resolving greenhouse gases emission cuts gridlock. With carbon emissions reaching an all time high of 400ppm in 2014, limiting atmospheric emission to less than 2 oC is critical to ending fossil fuel consumption by 2050. Despite pledges made by US and China to make critical emission cuts by 2025 and 2030 respectively, global emissions will still exceed plausible trajectory of 2oC in the years to come. Northern-sponsored solution for resolving the political stalemate was a thorny issue at Lima as it was not accepted to global south. Lima Accords requires all nations to uniformly cut emissions. Therein lies the rub. For Africa, the pace of economic growth will decrease as they are now threatened by natural disaster in addition to man-made solutions from COP20. The paper is of the opinion averting dangerous climate change in the years to come will not be determined by spurious promises of non-binding emissions cuts or making idealistic pledges of funding adaptation. Transformation of global carbon-based economy will be the outcome of serious commitments toward carbon cuts throughout the rest of the century. It posits the current climate non-binding agreement and commitment towards funding adaptation will not guarantee political lock -in at COP21 slated for Paris in 2015. Progress towards carbon cuts based on Intended Nationally Defined Contributions is not the final word on emissions. Therefore, current pledge and review regime will have a short shelf life as most nations cannot determine its national policy framework for the next few years let alone for 2030. It is my conclusion this political dead end of climate negotiations will push many in Africa below the poverty trap threshold as it is also with food security and economic growth imperatives. Africa will be more amiable to carbon cuts model not detrimental to its growth trajectory. The paper concludes that for Africa to leap frog from carbon intense pathway to low carbon trajectory there must be concrete arrangement for financing adaptation and a legal binding instrument.

The political stalemate is between developed and developing economies pitched against one another in
resolving greenhouse gases emission cuts gridlock. With carbon emissions reaching an all
400ppm in 2014, limiting atmospheric emission to less than 2
consumption by 2050. Despite pledges made by US and China to make critical emi
and 2030 respectively, global emissions will still exceed plausible trajectory of 2
come. Northern-sponsored solution for resolving the political stalemate was a thorny issue at Lima as it
was not accepted to global south. Lima Accords requires all nations to uniformly cut emissions.
Therein lies the rub. For Africa, the pace of economic growth will decrease as they are now threatened
by natural disaster in addition to man
dangerous climate change in the years to come will not be determined by spurious promises of non
binding emissions cuts or making idealistic pledges of funding adaptation. Transformation of global
carbon-based economy will be the outcome of
rest of the century. It posits the current climate non
funding adaptation will not guarantee political lock
towards carbon cuts based on Intended Nationally Defined Contributions is not the final word on
emissions. Therefore, current pledge and review regime will have a short shelf life as most nations
cannot determine its national policy framework for the next few y
conclusion this political dead end of climate negotiations will push many in Africa below the poverty
trap threshold as it is also with food security and economic growth imperatives. Africa will be more
amiable to carbon cuts model not detrimental to its growth trajectory. The paper concludes that for
Africa to leap frog from carbon intense pathway to low carbon trajectory there must be concrete
arrangement for financing adaptation and a legal binding instrument.
Keywords: Kyoto protocol, Negotiations, Green economy, Economic growth, C
emissions
1.0 Introduction
Kyoto Protocol was intended to leapfrog decarbonization process thereby limiting man
greenhouse gases (UNFCCC, 1997; Grubb et al., 2002;
1992, a total of 19 Conference of Parties (COP) were held to stabilize greenhouse gases
(GHG) at a level considered safe for planetary wellbeing. At onset world leaders were not
overtly concerned with the appropriate le
But it was at COP16 in Cancan, Mexico that global community resolved the safe threshold for
planetary wellbeing should be mean surface temperature of less than 2
industrial levels. Despite this goal, stabilizing adverse carbon footprint of global economy has
not yield tangible effects. Rather, as Sachs et al. (2014) suggest, GHG emissions are still far
from stabilizing emissions from burning of fossil fuels and direct CO
industrial processes growing daily from the first Conference of the Parties (COP1) of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since then, CO
were 23 billion tons (gigatons or Gt), and the CO
million (ppm). But by 2013, at COP19, global CO
com. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
Okoh, Augustine I. Sadiq, 2014, 2
rotocol Growth in Africa?
Okoh, Augustine I. Sadiq1
sadiqok4u@yahoo.com
RCMSS/JGGSDA/1412005
age-worn Pandora Box of climate politics.
all-


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